Bachmann Comes Up Lame in Iowa Horse Race

Michele Bachmann’s candidacy for POTUS is now officially the first casualty of the Iowa Caucuses.   Receiving just 5% of the vote was not enough to justify continuing the very expensive task of running for President.  Thus, once again, we see what the Iowa Caucuses do best.  They don’t pick the winners, they thin the field.

It looked for a moment as if Rick Perry would join the Congresswoman on the sidelines until he tweeted a confirmation that he will travel on to South Carolina.  He figures to gain a significant portion of the Bachmann’s vote, so his campaign believes he can take some momentum from Iowa despite his disappointing 10.3%, fifth place finish.  Unlike Bachmann, Perry has a significant amount of money and can afford at least a short term war of attrition with Mitt Romney.

The Santorum surge could not have come at a better time- coinciding with the first votes that actually count.  But his surge is just the latest in what has become the search for the perfect non-Romney candidate.  Veterans of such polling (now voting) bumps include Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and now Rick Santorum.  Thus far, every rise in the polls has been accompanied by an increase in scrutiny and a subsequent drop off.  Eventually the non-Romney vote may coalesce around one candidate but as yet the electorate has not been able to make up its mind.  The timing of the Santorum surge is ideal, but he needs to keep his momentum and his brand of retail politicking worked best in Iowa because he could spend months meeting its people.  Now that the primary season is underway, Santorum will need to ramp up the speed and focus of his campaign in order to compete with the spending power of Mitt Romney and Rick Perry’s organizations.

Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul had nights that met expectations.   Paul and Romney had numbers that reflected their steady poll numbers.  They avoided anything disastrous but didn’t come out as big winners.  Gingrich got clobbered from all sides with relentless negative advertising by his opponents and escaped with a fourth place finish.  He outperforms his national numbers in the next three primaries (NH, SC, FL) and is leading in the polls in South Carolina and Florida.

Overall, here’s how the Iowa Caucuses went for the GOP candidates…

Had a good day: Santorum, Perry

Had a bad day: Bachmann

Had a day: Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Huntsman

 

 

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Filed under 2012 Primary, Commentary, news, Politics, voting

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