Iowa Caucus time is almost upon us and that means the political horse races are about to begin in earnest. These votes count, and they are meaningful. Although the Iowa Caucus doesn’t always do a great job predicting the eventual winners, it is a key indicator as to where the socially conservative Republican base is leaning and, in this primary, that might be a solid voting bloc.
Ron Paul (24%)
His supporters are loyal and they intend to caucus. Ron Paul is not well liked by the folks over at Fox News and his inability to disentangle himself from a web of problems involving race and conspiracy theories will cap his national potential. An Iowa win, however, is not out of the question and it is difficult to see Paul finishing any lower than third.
Mitt Romney (20%)
After reversing his original decision to skip the Caucuses, Romney and his SuperPac are relentlessly pushing for a win in Iowa. The thinking is that a strong Iowa victory would bolster Romney’s conservative credentials and help make this a quick primary season. This week he has Republican darling Chris Christie stumping for him in the Hawkeye State.
Newt Gingrich (13%)
Free falling from his polling highs, Gingrich is getting hit harder on the airwaves than anyone in Iowa. He is hurting as a result. He is now essentially in a four way tie for third place but still taking hits as if he were a frontrunner.
Michelle Bachmann (11%)
Iowa is the state where she was born. It is a state with a friendly ear to her brand of social conservatism. She won the Iowa Straw Poll earlier this year. She better have a strong showing because things will not get easier for Bachmann as primary season progresses.
Rick Perry (10%)
Perry has made significant media investment of late touting his social conservative credibility. His debate performances have hurt him. Like the rest of the pack here, he needs a strong showing.
Rick Santorum (10%)
Santorum knows that if he doesn’t get support in Iowa, he is likely finished. No one questions his conservatism and Iowa is friendly territory. If he can’t overtake some of his
Jon Huntsman (4%)
Huntsman will not fare well in Iowa. He sees New Hampshire as his first true measuring stick. If he finishes with 5% or better he will have been more successful than expected.
